Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability - download pdf or read online

By Eugenia Kalnay

ISBN-10: 051107784X

ISBN-13: 9780511077845

ISBN-10: 0521791790

ISBN-13: 9780521791793

ISBN-10: 0521796296

ISBN-13: 9780521796293

This finished textual content and reference paintings on numerical climate prediction covers for the 1st time, not just tools for numerical modeling, but additionally the real comparable parts of information assimilation and predictability. It accommodates all elements of environmental desktop modeling together with an old evaluate of the topic, equations of movement and their approximations, a contemporary and transparent description of numerical tools, and the choice of preliminary stipulations utilizing climate observations (an very important new technology referred to as information assimilation).

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Example text

In order to understand better Charney’s comment, we quote an anecdote from Lorenz (1990) on his interactions with Jule Charney: On another3 occasion when our conversations had turned closer to scientific matters, Jule was talking again about the early days of NWP. For a proper 3 The previous occasion was a story about an invitation Charney received to appear on the “Today” show, to talk about how computers were going to forecast the weather. Since the show was at 7 am, Charney, a late riser, had never watched it.

5-day forecast for 21 Oct 1995, the case of a very unpredictable storm over the USA. (Courtesy of R. ) Dashes indicate the control forecast. 1 Historical overview of numerical weather prediction 30 in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean, and cold phases (La Ni˜na episodes) with cold anomalies. NCEP started performing multiseasonal predictions with coupled comprehensive atmosphere–ocean models in 1995, and ECMWF did so in 1997. A single atmospheric forecast forced with the SST anomalies would not be useful beyond the first week or so, when unpredictable weather variability would mask the forced atmospheric anomalies.

A first version of this considerably more expensive method was implemented at ECMWF at the end of 1997 (Bouttier and Rabier, 1997). , 1981), and ensemble KF (Evensen, 1994, Houtekamer and Mitchell, 1998) is discussed in Chapter 5. That chapter also includes a discussion about the problem of enforcing a balance in the analysis so that the presence of gravity waves does not 1 Historical overview of numerical weather prediction 16 mask the meteorological signal, as happened to Richardson (1922) (Fig.

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Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability by Eugenia Kalnay

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