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Download PDF by David F. Hendry: Econometrics: Alchemy or science

By David F. Hendry

ISBN-10: 0191522112

ISBN-13: 9780191522116

ISBN-10: 0198293542

ISBN-13: 9780198293545

ISBN-10: 1557862648

ISBN-13: 9781557862648

A textual content on econometric modeling in economics, reading many of the conflicting equipment in use this present day, reviewing the advantages and disadvantages of every. makes use of empirical functions, Monte Carlo simulations, and theoretical and econometric analyses to figure out most sensible perform as regards the competing techniques. Softcover.

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Extra resources for Econometrics: Alchemy or science

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The relevance of these comments to the current state of econometrics will be apparent shortly. Precisely what ‘science’ denotes is remarkably unclear, but the present mental associations of objectivity and progress ensure that simply using this prestigious 1 Reprinted from Economica, 47 (1980) 387–406. I am indebted to many colleagues for their help and advice in preparing this inaugural lecture but should like to thank in particular Mary Morgan, John Muellbauer, Frank Srba and Raija Thomson. The research was financed in part by Grant HR6727/1 from the Social Science Research Council to the Study in the History of Econometric Thought at the London School of Economics.

Added to these innuendoes of ‘alchemical’ practices, Leontief (1971) has characterized econometrics as ‘an attempt to compensate for the glaring weakness of the data base available to us by the widest possible use of more and more sophisticated statistical techniques’. e. econometrics] to economics should not be taken for granted; . . [Keynes] would not have been surprised to find that . . econometrics is now in some disarray’ (1979, p. xi). With the manifest breakdown in the early 1970s of the large empirical macroeconometric systems, outside scepticism does not bear mention.

Econometrics is now in some disarray’ (1979, p. xi). With the manifest breakdown in the early 1970s of the large empirical macroeconometric systems, outside scepticism does not bear mention. g. Stone, 1951; Koopmans, 1957, 1979), I should like instead to demonstrate the scientific status of econometrics by first showing alchemy at work empirically. This will enable us to understand the sense in which the quoted criticisms are valid, and by explaining why various apparently alchemical results are obtained en route my approach will suggest constructive strategies for enhancing the role of scientific method in econometrics.

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Econometrics: Alchemy or science by David F. Hendry


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