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Econometrics: Alchemy or Science? Essays in Econometric - download pdf or read online

By David F. Hendry

ISBN-10: 0191522112

ISBN-13: 9780191522116

ISBN-10: 0198293542

ISBN-13: 9780198293545

ISBN-10: 1557862648

ISBN-13: 9781557862648

Because the first version of this booklet used to be released in 1993, David Hendry's paintings on econometric method has turn into more and more influential. during this variation he offers a new paper which compellingly explains the common sense of his normal method of econometric modeling and describes fresh significant advances in computer-automated modeling, which determine the good fortune of the proposed process. Empirical reports of shoppers' expenditure and cash calls for illustrate the equipment in motion. The step forward awarded right here will make econometric checking out a lot more straightforward.

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Substantial resources have been devoted to empirical macro-econometric models which comprise hundreds or even thousands of statistically calibrated equations, each purporting to represent some autonomous facet of the behaviour of economic agents such as consumers and producers, the whole intended to describe accurately the overall evolution of the economy. Despite its obvious potential, econometrics has not had an easy time from many who have made major contributions to the development of economics, beginning with Keynes's famous review in 1939 of Tinbergen's book, Statistical Testing of Business-Cycle Theories.

A more accurate idea of the subject is provided in the constitution of the Econometric Society, founded in 1930, which defined its main objectives as ‘the advancement of economic theory in its relation to statistics and mathematics’ (Econometrica, 1933, p. 1). ) by abstracting the main phenomena of interest and stating theories thereof in mathematical form. The empirical usefulness of the resulting ‘models’ is evaluated using statistical information of supposed relevance, and econometrics in the narrow sense (used hereafter) concerns the interpretation and analysis of such data in the context of ‘established’ economic theory.

15 referred to by the profession as ‘nonsense regressions’ (although I could not find an equivalent of ‘puffer’, regressor already having another meaning). 1 presents (seasonally adjusted) quarterly time-series data for the United Kingdom over the period 1964(ii)–1975(ii) relating to the age-old and seemingly unresolved controversy concerning the effect of money (here personal sector M3) on prices (here the consumer price index); the variables, denoted M and P, are plotted on a logarithmic scale.

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Econometrics: Alchemy or Science? Essays in Econometric Methodology by David F. Hendry

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